The Best Way presents its general trading brief for Monday August 31, 2026. Two policy shocks reset the board over the weekend: the US Fed chair’s hawkish Jackson Hole debut repriced rate expectations and knocked metals lower, while Canada answered Washington’s wood tariffs with counter-tariffs of its own — including on lumber — turning a trade dispute into a declared trade war. Here is the trader’s map into September.
WOOD — trade war, two-way risk: Lumber futures closed Friday at $565.54/mbf (+1.1%), bouncing off five-month lows near $560 after Canada announced counter-tariffs on US goods including lumber; PM Carney says he remains open to talks but will accept no “subordinate position.” The cash market tells the demand story: Madison’s index fell to $521 (-2% w/w, -7% m/m), and US housing starts are down 12.4%. The read changes: the buyer’s window below $570 remains genuine on weak demand, but tariff escalation now cuts both ways — counter-tariffs and mill closures (20+ in British Columbia since 2023) can squeeze supply and spike prices on any headline. Buy the weakness, but in tranches, with contracts dated and priced.
METALS — hawkish headwind, structural floor: Friday’s hawkish turn lifted the dollar and rate expectations — a short-term headwind across the complex (silver -4% to $66.39; gold -3%). The structure beneath is unchanged: copper’s record year (peak ~$14,527/t; JPM $14,800 target) rests on sulfur shortages and electrification; aluminum’s ~1.7 mmt deficit and disrupted Gulf smelters hold the $3,800 Q3 forecast; steel’s HRC ~$1,186/t remains tariff-split between elevated US/EU and a China-dragged Asia. Treat Fed-driven dips in copper and aluminum as procurement opportunities against deficit fundamentals; keep steel sourcing flexible across regions.
THE WEEK: US PMIs, JOLTS, ADP, then Friday’s jobs report — the number that will set the dollar’s tone, and with it every commodity’s. A weak print reverses Friday’s metal losses; a strong one extends them.
The Best Way’s read: Contract wood in tranches inside the window; buy metal dips against deficits; hedge dollar exposure through Friday. Policy weeks reward the trader with dated contracts and cool nerves — both are our stock in trade. Contact us for quotations across timber, aluminum, steel, and project supply.
